Economic Indicators of The Adequacy of Wheat Production for Achieving Food Security in Iraq

Abstract

The research aims to analyze the reality of food security for the wheat crop in Iraq through studying the most important economic indicators related to production and consumption, in order to determine the ability of local production to meet food needs and reduce dependence on imports. The study relied on indicators including external dependency ratio, local consumption, production sufficiency period, food deficit period, strategic stock, and food security coefficient. The results showed fluctuations in the dependence on imports according to changes in local production, as it increased in 2022 to (16.2%) due to the decline in production, while it decreased or disappeared during years of production abundance. The study also revealed spatial variation in daily local consumption according to population size, with بغداد recording the highest consumption levels. The results further indicated spatial disparities in production sufficiency and food deficit among the provinces. Provinces such as Salah al-Din, Erbil, and Ninaw achieved a production surplus, while Baghdad and Basra recorded the lowest sufficiency levels due to weak production and high demand, leading to dependence on surplus production from other provinces or imports to meet food needs. The study concluded that the strategic food stock reached (485,870) tons, while the food security coefficient was about (0.1), reflecting the limited ability of food reserves to face long-term crises. The study emphasized the need to enhance local production, improve agricultural resource management, develop strategic storage policies, and adopt balanced agricultural policies to reduce the food gap and achieve food sustainability.