Future prospects for water security in Iraq

Abstract

Water security for any society is of utmost importance, and climate changes on one hand and the modifications made by many countries to international river courses on the other hand may lead to serious alterations in water security in many countries around the world, including Iraq. Therefore, this research aimed to measure some indicators of water security in Iraq and to predict the future of those indicators by analyzing the series of per capita Iraqi water imports for the period 1980-2024 using the ARIMA model. The results of the research indicated that the per capita Iraqi water imports have rapidly declined during the study period, transforming Iraq from a water-rich country to one suffering from water scarcity and water poverty. Forecasts suggest that per capita water imports will reach about 500 m³ annually by 2030.